Commerce Secretary admits tech tariff "reprieve" is temporary as Warren calls it a "red light, green light game" - JPMorgan now puts recession odds at 60%

The market's brief celebration over tech tariff exemptions just got a cold shower.

Tech Industry's Relief May Be Short-Lived

Just days after the Trump administration announced exemptions for smartphones and computers from the sweeping 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dropped a bombshell.

The reprieve for tech products is only temporary.

Speaking on ABC's "This Week," Lutnick clarified that electronic devices aren't actually escaping tariffs – they're just being moved to a different "bucket."

"(Electronics are) exempt from the reciprocal tariffs, but they're included in the semiconductor tariffs, which are coming in probably a month or two," Lutnick explained.

The revelation sent shockwaves through tech circles that had breathed a collective sigh of relief following Friday's announcement.

Warren Blasts Administration's Approach

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren didn't mince words in her assessment of the situation.

Appearing on CNN's "State of the Union," Warren characterized the shifting tariff policies as "chaos and corruption."

"Investors will not invest in the United States when Donald Trump is playing 'red light, green light' with tariffs and saying, 'Oh, and for my special donors, you get a special exemption,'" Warren said.

The Democratic senator further criticized the administration's approach, saying, "Nobody can figure out what the rules will be five days from now, much less five years from now."

Markets Reeling From Tariff Whiplash

The back-and-forth on tariff policies has sent markets into a tailspin.

Consumer sentiment has plummeted to the second-lowest level on record since 1952.

And the stock market has been on a rollercoaster ride, with tech stocks particularly vulnerable to the uncertainty.

Analysts at Wedbush Securities had initially called the tariff exemptions "the best news possible for tech investors," noting that companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft could "breathe a huge sigh of relief."

That relief appears to have been premature.

Recession Fears Growing

The economic implications of the tariff chaos are becoming increasingly dire.

JPMorgan has now raised its odds of a recession to 60%, up from its previous estimate of 40%.

Goldman Sachs isn't far behind, putting recession probability at 45%.

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio, appearing on "Meet the Press," stated America is "very close to a recession."

"If you take tariffs, if you take debt, if you take the rising power challenging existing power — if you take those factors, those changes in the systems are very, very disruptive," Dalio warned.

The Real Deal on Tech Tariffs

The truth about tech tariffs finally emerged Sunday afternoon when President Trump took to Truth Social to clarify the situation.

"NOBODY is getting 'off the hook' for the unfair Trade Balances, and Non Monetary Tariff Barriers, that other Countries have used against us, especially not China which, by far, treats us the worst!" Trump posted.

He continued: "There was no Tariff 'exception' announced on Friday. These products are subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs, and they are just moving to a different Tariff 'bucket.'"

What this means for consumers: electronic devices from China will indeed face tariffs – they're just being handled under a different framework than the reciprocal tariffs announced earlier.

And according to Lutnick, new semiconductor-specific tariffs targeting these products will be coming within "a month or two."

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers delivered perhaps the most damning assessment, calling the tariff policy "the worst self-inflicted wound through economic policy" since World War II, adding it's "wrong on competitiveness, wrong on unemployment, wrong on inflation."

As the 90-day tariff pause continues for countries other than China, consumers and businesses alike are left wondering what comes next in a trade policy that even supporters admit has created unprecedented uncertainty.